Click here for an article at Yahoo/Finance by Shawn Tully entitled "Could there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The data scientist who correctly called the last election is betting yes.
The data scientist in question is Thomas Miller, of Northwestern University, who predicted the results in recent elections with pinpoint accuracy, and he derives much of his data from betting sites.
For the 2024 presidential race, Miller is once again relying on PredictIt [a betting site]. He praises the site for "having a more stable group of investors" than the populations screened by pollsters. "You have tens of thousands of people betting on the site at all times of the day," he says. "The maximum contract is $850, and 37,000 'shares' are traded on average every day." Put simply, Miller regards PredictIt as a highly liquid market resembling an exchange for, say small-cap stocks or high yield bonds that gathers huge numbers of buyers and sellers. "Financial markets are forward-looking, and incorporate information instantaneously, and PredictIt provides the same benefits," says Miller.
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