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Friday, June 10, 2011

Republican Race (To The Bottom)

I had thought to post snapshots of the Republican nomination race from time to time, but while that covers the big picture as I see it, a lot of little stuff -- which adds up -- goes unremarked. So I plan to keep updating this post with day-to-day stuff from each of the "serious" (he said with a straight face) candidates.

We'll start with my last complete consideration of the race, entitled "Daniels Is Out: How The Republican Race Stands Today."

I looked at the race as three tiers. The first was Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, and Gingrich. I considered those as the "adult" candidates, with Newt barely hanging on by his fingernails to remain first-tier. I thought it likely that one of the first tier would win, and the race would boil down to two: Romney and not-Romney.

The second tier were people I considered long shots, but having a remote chance: Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Herman Cain. (Why on earth did I put Cain in this tier? As I said: "Not a chance in hell, because too many Republicans are racist." And yet there he is on the list of people with an outside shot. Oh, well.)

The third tier I dismissed: "...none of them can possibly win." That was Palin, Bachmann, Bolton, Giuliani, and Roemer (what? You don't know who that is? He was governor of Louisiana at one time. This is his last appearance on this thread.)

So that's the way I saw it at that time (no particular order in each of the tiers, by the way):
  • First tier:  Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Gingrich
  • Second tier:  Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, Herman Cain
  • Third tier:  Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani, Buddy Roemer.
Gingrich seems to have not just slipped from the first tier: Having spent a disastrous week after announcing, he decided to take a leisurely, luxurious Mediterranean cruise for two weeks, and his entire campaign staff decided to take a hike. Newt's gone.

On the second tier, Gary Johnson has all but thrown in the towel. On the third, Bolton and Roemer seem nowhere to be found and Giuliani looks unlikely to enter the race at all.

So that thins out the herd considerably. Here's how I see them  now:
  • Romney: intensely hated by the Tea Party and almost universally by the upper echelon of the old-style Republican establishment as well, but still the front-runner, largely because he's heir apparent from 2008
  • Tim Pawlenty, who has now outwingnutted the Tea Party with his extreme economic policy proposals
  • Jon Huntsman, just as Mormon as Romney, and gaining very little
  • Ron Paul, a man of strong principles who won't pander for votes and who therefore cannot win
  • Rick Santorum, an astonishingly stupid darling of the right-wing evangelicals, whose political heyday is a decade and more behind them
  • Herman Cain, who is making increasingly unhinged statements (The Obamacare bill, at 2700 pages, was too long! When he's elected, bills will be held to a maximum of 3 pages!) is looking increasingly foolish -- and did you notice he's black?
  • And that leaves -- God help us all! -- Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann.
With the anyone-but-Romney crowd in full bloodthirsty cry, with the remarkable unenthusiasm developing for Pawlenty and Huntsman, the situation looks dire indeed. Too distasteful for me to contemplate any further at this point.

Santorum, Palin, or Bachmann?

The horror ... the horror ....

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