Click here for Paul Krugman's Substack article on August 24, 2026, entitled "The Moose That Roared."
It's a discussion of the Canada-U.S. trade war. I particularly like the graph entitled "Canada's Liberals are on track to victory," which shows estimated probability of Liberals and Conservatives winning the most seats in Canada's April 2025 federal election.
Conservative support was around 90% when the unpopular Justin Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney became the Liberal leader. From there, although Conservative support steadily diminished, it was still around 60%, with Liberal support at 30% and 10% undecided -- until Trump made his inflammatory remarks about making Canada the 51st state. Overnight, the situation switched to 60/40 Liberal over Conservative, and support for Liberals continued to grow.
Until Trump opened his mouth and stuck his foot in it, the question Canadians were asking was: Will the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, win a majority or just a simple plurality -- something like 45% Conservative, 35% Liberal, 20% NDP? Thank you, Donald Trump, for delivering the victory to Mark Carney's Liberals.