FIRST TIER
These people have a legitimate shot at winning the nomination. Their political fortunes may wax and wane, and two of them will eventually be relegated to the second tier before they withdraw. Right now Gingrich is flailing wildly at the bottom of the pack, trying to avoid that fate.
Mitt Romney (former governor of Massachusetts, 2003-2007; did not seek re-election)
Background: His father rose from humble beginnings to become CEO of American Motors, then governor of Michigan. Mitt spent several years in France as a Mormon missionary. On his return to the U.S., he got a law degree and did well as a management consultant for various firms. He co-founded a highly successful private equity investment firm, Bain Capital, which helped start Staples Inc. and then got into leveraged buyouts; Romney accumulated a fortune of several hundred million dollars. He took over as organizer of the 2002 Winter Olympics at Salt Lake City when they were plagued with scandal and looking shaky; they became a financial success. As governor, he instituted a near-universal health care plan which included a personal mandate. Fairly liberal in his early political career, Romney became increasingly conservative; some call it pandering, sacrificing principle for the sake of election. He took a lot of heat in his run for the presidency in 2008 for perceived flip-flops.
Prospects as Republican nominee: There are two categories in the first tier -- Mitt Romney, and not-Mitt-Romney. In the final round, there will be one contender remaining in each of these two categories. The Tea Party will never accept him because of Romneycare. While the nomination might be won by someone without strong, enthusiastic Tea Party support, it can't be won by anyone with stiff Tea Party opposition. Unless he diffuses Tea Party anger, he can't win the nomination.
Tim Pawlenty (former governor of Minnesota, 2003-2011)
Background: His father drove a milk truck. Raised as a Roman Catholic, he became an evangelical Christian. He earned a law degree and worked in law and business. Elected to the Minnesota House in 1992, he was re-elected five times. He was co-chairman of the McCain campaign in the 2008 election.
Prospects as Republican nominee: With the implosion of Newt Gingrich, Pawlenty and Huntsman are the two front-runners to be the not-Mitt-Romney candidate. Pawlenty has a head start, having declared his intention -- and consequently getting considerable media coverage -- several weeks before Huntsman. So far, he suffers from poor name recognition and lack of charisma.
Jon Huntsman (former governor of Utah, 2005 to 2008)
Background: Son of billionaire Jon Huntsman Sr., he earned a bachelor's degree in international politics. Like Romney, he was a Mormon missionary for a time, in Taiwan. He worked as an executive in his father's companies, serving in government positions in the Reagan and H.W. Bush administrations. Re-elected governor by a 58-point margin and 77% of the popular vote, he resigned to accept appointment as ambassador to China. He left office with over 80% approval.
Prospects as Republican nominee: Along with Pawlenty, Huntsman is considered to be in the "adult" class, to be taken seriously. His name recognition is low outside Utah and Washington, D.C. As a late entry in the race, he may have trouble recruiting a strong campaign team and raising enough money. Having served as an ambassador in the Obama administration is problematic; Obama's praise for him hasn't helped him with Republicans. He has been lukewarm in support for the Ryan budget proposal, though he said he would have voted for it. He is a strong supporter of marriage equality for gays and lesbians. His views on climate change are also suspicious to the conservative base. "I think we can probe beyond these tags of Democrat, moderate, conservative and really take a look at what people have done and are willing to do going forward," he said last weekend. Oh, really? Whether the Tea Party will give him tepid support is unclear.
Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House of Representatives, 1995-1998)
Background: Newt was a military brat whose family moved around a lot. He has a PhD in history and was a history professor and author before entering politics. Elected to Congress in 1978, he was re-elected ten times. He was co-author of the Contract With America in 1994, and remained a prominent thorn in Clinton's side until he resigned his seat following Republican losses in 1998. He led the Republican forces in the government shutdown in 1995/96, which harmed his public image. He was always an inflammatory and polarizing "loose cannon," narrowly survived a political coup led by Tom Delay and Dick Armey, and had various ethical problems both in government and in his personal life.
Prospects as Republican nominee: He was severely damaged by controversial conduct in the first week of his campaign. Sunday on Meet The Press, he expressed opposition to Ryan's plan as “right-wing social engineering." Praised by the Democrats and attacked by Republicans from all sides, he struggled with various tactics to try to explain his apostasy. He called Paul Ryan to apologize. He went on Limbaugh's radio show to try to backtrack, and made the astonishing and preposterous statement that he hadn't been referring to Ryan's plan at all. He declared to Greta Van Susteren on Fox News that anyone who quotes his Meet The Press statements is lying. And his press secretary wrote a defense in the most florid, purple prose imaginable, which became universally mocked: "A lesser person could not have survived the first few minutes of the onslaught. But out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia emerged Gingrich ..." Paul Ryan said, "With friends like that, who needs the left?" Charles Krauthammer was succinct: "He's done." The second tier looms.
Second and third tiers descend into hopelessness after the jump.
SECOND TIER
These people are not serious candidates and could only win the nomination in some freakish, bizarre set of circumstances.
Ron Paul (Congressman from Texas)
Paul has a hard core of devoted followers who will raise significant amounts of money and stick with him to the end, but that group is not big enough to be taken seriously. He will not pander to the Tea Party or anyone else, so his base has no way to expand. He's a man of principle; too bad his principles are so warped.
Rick Santorum (former senator from Pennsylvania, 2000-2006)
Elected to the House in 1990 and the Senate in 1994, Santorum was re-elected in 2000 but defeated soundly in 2006, taking 41% of the vote to his opponent's 59%. A hard-right fiscal and social conservative, Santorum's strongest support is from the religious right.
Gary Johnson (former governor of New Mexico, 1995-2003)
Johnson is a self-made man who became a construction magnate. A fitness fanatic, he has competed in numerous Iron Man Triathlon events and climbed Mt. Everest in 2003). As governor, he was known for anti-tax, anti-bureaucracy libertarian views. He strongly supported school vouchers and de-criminalization of marijuana.
Herman Cain (talk radio host, former CEO of Godfathers Pizza, former deputy chairman and chairman, Kansas City Federal Reserve, 1992-1996)
Runaway winner in the "Best Baritone" category, Cain has a long-shot chance to be picked as a VP running mate, because the Republicans would love to run a black guy to counteract charges that they're racist. But president? Not a chance in hell, because too many Republicans are racist.
THIRD TIER
These people have not yet declared; it's unlikely that any of them will, since none of them can possibly win.
Sarah Palin (former half-term governor of Alaska, 2006-2009)
Palin came out of nowhere to give a dynamite base-rousing speech at the 2008 Republican Convention; it's been all downhill from there. If she was serious about running, Fox News would likely have cut their association with her as they did with Santorum and Gingrich -- and, notably, not with Huckabee. She was third in the Miss Alaska contest in 1984; where would her political career be if she looked like Madeleine Albright? She's still the darling of the Tea Party, and she has a rabid and insane core of supporters who truly believe she is the Republican savior who would trounce Obama, but her negatives are so high among other Republicans she can't win.
Michele Bachmann (congressperson from Minnesota, 2007 to the present)
A serial liar, she knows a lot of things that just aren't so.
John Bolton (former short-term W. ambassador to the United Nations -- an institution to which he was fiercely opposed)
Best known and admired for his mega-moustache and luxuriant toupee.
Rudy Giuliani (former mayor of New York, 1993-2001)
Mr. 9/11. Hugely unpopular as he neared the end of his term, he ran around for 72 hours straight, seemingly without sleep, sticking his face in every camera or microphone he could find, which made him hugely popular for a few weeks.
Buddy Roemer (former governor of Louisiana)
- Buddy who?
0 comments:
Post a Comment