How Strong Is The Tea, Michele?

UPDATE

I wrote the original post a few weeks ago; Bachmann had not declared, Gingrich had not self-immolated. My first tier -- Pawlenty, Gingrich, Romney, Huntsman -- has pretty much collapsed, leaving only Romney, with his deadly baggage of RomneyCare and the fuming hatred of the Tea Party.

I predicted, though, that Bachmann would rocket to the top if she declared and Palin didn't. I gave Palin the upper hand over Bachmann back then, but that's changed; Michele has become the star, while Palin is fading as her supporters are finally realizing that while Michele is a politician, Sarah is just a celebrity. (Actually Michele didn't make it quite to the top; she's trailing Romney.) Michele is my pick to crush the field in the Ames, Iowa, straw poll coming up in a couple of weeks.

So Tier 1 at the moment is Romney and Bachmann -- with Rick Perry waiting in the wings, undeclared as of yet. I liked James Carville's assessment of Perry: "He likes to talk, and he's not too bright; I like that combination in a Republican."

Of my former first tier, Gingrich is gone. Pawlenty and Huntsman, while fairly solid and earnest, and while Pawlenty has pandered shamelessly to the Tea Party, are both too colorless to have made any impact; unless one of them catches fire, they're second-tier longshots.

My former second tier -- Santorum, Paul, Johnson, and Cain -- are relegated to the hope-for-a-miracle third tier. Santorum, evangelical darling, probably stands the best chance, and that chance isn't good; he should be bolstered by a strong finish in the Ames straw poll. Paul won't pander for votes, so he can't win. Johnson has dropped off everybody's radar. Cain is planning to plan to come up with a plan, but he's got no substance, and while he's "colorful" enough, there's no way in the world a black man can win the Republican nomination in 2012.

Of my erstwhile third tier, Palin, Bolton, and Giuliani are writeoffs. (I had Bachmann at this level because she hadn't yet declared.)

I'm surprised. I had thought that it would boil down to three: (1) Romney, (2) reasonably sane and sensible not-Romney, and (3) Tea Party wingnut. It's turned out to be Romney and two wingnuts. At the moment, Bachmann is the Tea Party frontrunner, but the No. 2 spot is Perry's if he runs -- at least for a while. If he doesn't run, it's Romney v. Bachmann. Neither is beloved by the party establishment, but Bachmann has the Tea Party/evangelical crowd. Romney, however, would be a far stronger opponent for Obama in the general, and Bachmann's tendency to stick her foot in her mouth -- and then, when called on it, to push it in past the ankle -- could eliminate her overnight. If that should happen, with Perry the wild card, Pawlenty stands a better chance than Huntsman to pull himself up from his second-tier status.

I have a lot of respect for Lawrence O'Donnell's opinion, and he is still stoutly predicting Pawlenty -- not because TPaw is good, but because the others each have a fatal flaw that will be their eventual undoing, whereas Pawlenty is milquetoast and bland. If Romney finds himself locked in mortal combat with Bachmann/Perry, Pawlenty could slide in as both sides' second choice.

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Factoring in Tea Party influence:

FIRST TIER

• Tim Pawlenty
• Tea Party support may be strong unless Palin or Bachmann declare
• Newt Gingrich
• Has to dig himself out of the hole and pander like crazy to the Tea Party, something Newt is good at
• Mitt Romney
• Tea Party hostility may doom him
• Jon Huntsman
• Could be doomed, like Romney, by the Tea Party

SECOND TIER

• Rick Santorum
• Wingnut religious right support, could rival Pawlenty for Tea Party support, fades if Palin or Bachmann run
• Ron Paul
• Has a strong following, but not really big with the Tea Party; won't pander to them for political advantage, as the others will
• Gary Johnson
• Not really
• Herman Cain
• Even less

THIRD TIER:

• Sarah Palin
• Frontrunner if the Tea Party knocks off Romney and Huntsman
• Michele Bachmann
• Frontrunner if the Tea Party knocks off Romney and Huntsman, and Palin doesn't run
• John Bolton
• No.
• Rudy Giuliani
• Also no.

If the forces of reason prevail, then it should come down to Pawlenty/Huntsman v. Romney, with all three of them running hard to their right -- in the primaries. The winner will backtrack as far as possible for the general. On the other hand, if the Tea Party are truly a kingmaking force, and if they can knock out the moderates Romney and Huntsman, then it's Pawlenty and Gingrich pandering to the extreme right, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum from Tier 2 -- unless Palin and/or Bachmann run.

In a Tea-Party-Ascendant situation, it's
(first tier) Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich
(second tier) Rick Santorum, Ron Paul
UNLESS
Sarah Palin and/or Michele Bachmann declare
IN WHICH CASE
Sarah Palin/Michele Bachmann rocket to the top. Their campaigns are likely coordinating so that both don't enter, but Sarah holds the top position. So if Sarah declares, Michele won't; if Sarah decides to pass, Michele will declare.

If the Tea Party overpowers the Republican Establishment, then Sarah/Michele become frontrunner -- Sarah if she runs, Michele if she doesn't -- with Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Santorum shamefully trying to outpander each other, lying and grovelling while slithering to the right and hoping Sarah/Michele commit some stupid and fatal error (a distinct possibility).